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Iran on Edge: Fears of Internal Unrest Amidst Anticipated Israeli Strikes

The Middle East remains tense as Israel prepares for an impending response to Iran's ballistic missile attack earlier this month. Iranian citizens are anxious about the potential for instability and unrest due to the expected military pressure, according to a Washington Post report.

A Tense Standoff and Fears of Economic Crisis

The Washington Post reported that in the weeks following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1st, Iranian state-aligned media outlets highlighted the country's military might as they awaited a response from Tel Aviv. While Iranian officials showcased the country's military strength, the depth of the crisis is evident as Israel continues its attacks on Tehran's allies in the region.

While the United States attempts to limit the scope of Israel's retaliation, the anticipated strikes could further destabilize Iran's already fragile economy, exacerbate divisions among the government's opponents, and undermine hopes that newly elected reformist president Ebrahim Raisi will usher in a new era of engagement with the West.

Analysts say Iranian leaders see Israel as increasingly aggressive, encroaching on the region, ignoring pleas from U.S. President Joe Biden to curtail bombing operations and protect civilians in Gaza and Beirut. Although Israel has not publicly disclosed how or when it will respond to Iran's recent attack, officials confirm that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the U.S. earlier this month that he would avoid striking Iranian oil sites and facilities.

However, airstrikes targeting various locations in Iran could damage the country's critical infrastructure, exacerbating the struggling economy. Residents are already lining up at fuel stations in the capital, some storing food, and authorities have canceled dozens of domestic flights in anticipation of any attack, according to the newspaper. Decades of U.S. sanctions, along with corruption and mismanagement, have crippled the Iranian economy, which remains heavily reliant on oil exports. For ordinary Iranians, unemployment, high inflation, and a weak currency have led to a decline in living standards.

Analysts believe that even if Israel avoids targeting oil facilities, it might target Iranian refineries. Iran's foreign minister has stated that his country has identified all potential targets in Israel should Tel Aviv launch the attack it previously threatened. Colby Conley, director of the economics and energy program at the Middle East Institute, said, "Targeting these facilities is likely to disrupt Iran's internal situation. This could lead to fuel shortages, which in turn could lead to internal instability."

Internal Divisions and Uncertainties

The Washington Post highlights that the possibility of Israeli strikes against Iran has sparked debate among government opponents in Tehran regarding their support for such an attack. Some Iranians hope that the anticipated Israeli military strike will facilitate "the downfall of the country's leadership." Others warn that supporting Tel Aviv "is a dangerous proposition." They fear that any escalation will only bring more suffering to the Iranian people.

Meanwhile, those supporting Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, elected in July, worry that tensions with Israel, a key U.S. ally, will impede their administration's efforts to engage with Western countries after years of isolation.